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Non-Tech : NOTES
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To: Didi who started this subject9/4/2001 11:44:14 AM
From: Didi   of 2505
 
Wells Fargo--Dr. Sohn: "NAPM Manufacturing Index"

drsohn.com <---chart

===========================

Rearranged.

>>> September 4, 2001

Date   Indicator       For   Estimate  Actual   Previous Period

9/4/01  US NAPM        Aug    44.0     47.9       43.6

9/4/01  US NAPM        Aug    37.4     33.9       38.7
        Prices Paid 

9/4/01 US Construction Jul     0.0%    -0.1%      -1.0% (r)


Commentary:

The manufacturing recession is coming to an end;
...manufacturing is contracting at a slower rate.

The August NAPM index rose to 47.9 percent from 43.6 percent in July.

For a diffusion index like NAPM, a number below 50 means contraction.

Manufacturing has been in a recession for a while;
... the NAPM index has been declining for 13 months.

However, inventory trimming, the primary source of production cutbacks, has turned into inventory accumulation.

With the exception of high tech, inventory building will be source of economic growth during the second half of this year.

Most of the components of the NAPM went in the right direction.
... Production, new orders and export orders rose.

Vendor deliveries became faster and prices declined.

Inventories also declined.

Manufacturing is stabilizing with little inflationary pressure.

There should be a room for another quarter point cut in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve.<<<
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