Hi GV, RE: "Similarly, where Intel traded during the Internet bubble when its earnings were inflated by venture capital gains means little, now"
Take the Internet bubble earnings and replace it with estimated Server earnings, and then keep adding, for awhile. Then please tell me what valuation you eventually get for INTC?
To do this calculation, you'll need to estimate the market size of the Server market, growth rates and margins.
And you might as well throw in Alpha's chip profit from revenue too, since that'll all be Intel's by 2004, if not sooner.
And I wouldn't be surprised to learn Sun jumps on board too, once the momentum (in the IA-64 software space) picks up, or once they decide they don't want to plow a billion to make a new chip. But be conservative in your calculation, and assume Sun won't join the IA-64 train.
Regards,
Amy J |
