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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: jeffbas who wrote (13894)2/12/2002 12:05:40 AM
From: Bob Rudd  Read Replies (1) of 78673
 
jeffrey bash <<if you had read that WSJ article you would not be so comfortable about believing there wasn't massive fraud.>>Actually, I did read it...then assigned massive fraud a 10% probability...a helluva lot higher than baseline, but a lot lower than certainty or 'highly likely'. If recently adjusted estimates of 1.46 are real then a 20 multiple would still be discount to the group. Or they could miss...but not huge, or they could find a cure for Alzhiemers...assigning probabilities to those various outcomes, I get about a 21 to 24 expected value....>50% upside from here. Enron and recent accounting focus has greatly increased perceptions of fraud likelihood the way a big airline crash increases fear of flying [The behavioral finance folks would refer to this as the availability heuristic]. I think this has produced an excessive discounting in companies like TYC, CPN and ELN. OTOH, I'm keeping my bets modest...especailly with ELN.
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