I'm thinking about buying some AOL puts, possibly April, to allow the stock to drift down. Any thoughts?
My puts are April 20's, but I'm not as in love with them right now as I used to be. I like them a lot, though. I believe I'll be able to sell them for much more than the 25 cents I paid for them, but doubt they'll ever hit the strike price. Wishing I'd gotten 30s instead.
I still believe that AOL *should* go into the teens, and possibly will, but I bought the puts based solely on my belief that the worse news yet to come would definitely cause it to plummet.
I underestimated this company's amazing ability to roll with the punches, even to the extent that they said they'd stop advertising, didn't, were ordered by the AGs to stop advertising, and still haven't (I saw an AOL commercial on 2/1/97), yet nothing seems to happen. The AG agreement favored AOL more than the people the AGs were representing, in that it allowed AOL to keep most of its ill-gotten gains, as well as ensuring that not only would it take a bit of legwork for someone to attempt to get money back, it's still AOL's decision whether or not that'll happen.
I believe they will be hit with lots of fraud suits (and rightly so) and that many, if not all of them, will be won, but AOL's extraordinary ability to spin out BS, combined with the desire of the real movers and shakers to see the price buoyed, makes it much less certain they're going down. My belief is that the company is fraudulent and/or stupid. However, Case seems quite a detestable, yet formidably skilled, worm. If I didn't care about ethics or morality, but only about personal monetary gain, I can't think of anyone I'd rather have in my corner. I seriously underestimated him and those around him.
Still, I found it quite heartening to see that they lost 1 3/4 of the high they achieved on Friday, closing 7/8 down for the day. There may still be joy in Mudville. |
