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Strategies & Market Trends : Russia/Templeton Russia Fund (TRF)

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To: Quang Nguyen who wrote (13)8/29/1997 2:38:00 AM
From: Real Man   of 94
 
He-he, I guess, nobody wanted to be 13-th? Quang, I just
turned bearish. I'm sitting 100% cash since July, 15.
(Tried to get in QNTM once, when I thought this correction was over,
but sold at a loss).
I think there is a big chance that DOW will drop a lot
this Fall. This would mean even more pain for high PE stocks like
NSCP. If there are many
followers of the UPS strike - Fed will likely raise rates, etc.
If TRF sells in sympathy, TRF will sell Russian shares, Russian
market is small, so it will "feel" it (?). I wonder if this is
what's happening now. I'm still cautious. I think I have time
before the next big advance. I have TRF, RNE, Japanese stocks, QNTM,
WDC, APM on my "watch" list. I think, Japan is about to begin a
long-term bull market, while in the US the bull is about to be
over. However, if US drops, Japan drops even more, IMHO. Then big
Japanese stocks will become a long-term buying opportunity - both
because of strengthening of the Yen and because of their growth.
-Vi
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