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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorts waiting to happen

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To: zx who wrote (13)5/17/1996 10:37:00 PM
From: Cadaver   of 852
 
NINE is shooting up because an ex-IOMG vp is made vp or something of NINE. The bulls usually dont know how much a stock's price increase is worth on news like this (also takeover rumors, new product etc) and they chase the price way up. When a stock rises on Earnings report or some such fundamental change, the rise is more accurate and the fall is milder. It's the news surge bears can capitalize on.

Allright so some guy is made vp of NINE. So does that mean the company's stock is worth twice the next day? I think not. Until the guy does some work on the company, you cant expect any change in the intrinsic value of the company. Sure, the guy has a good reputation, so the company should benefit. But double the price? And overnight at that? And how sure are we that he will continue working here? Somebody might buy him out..or whatever. My point is that a 100% price increase is unwarranted on any news except takeover/merger announcement.

Of course, all shorts are risky. NINE is no different. They have a good product, the high performance video card and maybe it's a company that's just being discovered.

But a stock that rises 100%+ in three days is a short candidate. Even if it is MSFT, I'd say short it. As long as you cover on the correction, you have a minimal risk of loss.

A stock that rises 200% is a certain short candidate. I'm yet to find an exception to this rule. Naturally, one gets very few of these. But one a month should be sufficient?

Cadaver
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