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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation

VNTV 77.60

+2.6%

Jan 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Konehead who wrote (1398)	12/15/1997 10:35:00 AM
From: Clam Clam	Read Replies (1) of 3033

Kone, >>Don't forget that Oracle has long been planning for DBMS license revenue growth to slow. I think it is going to more than slow. In the near term, Oracle is facing slowing market growth when Y2K should be helping. In the long-run, Microsoft will beat 'em up with SQL & NT. Database revs are going to start showing negative year-over-year growth sometime over next 12-18 months. Database licenses and services is too big a % of total to allow this company to grow at a decent rate. No company ever gets full (valuation) credit for one good division or subsidiary (apps). Moreover, even the apps division is questionable in terms of its business value add. Oracle will lose employees that jump ship in a talent short industry (and geographic region) and the same vicious cycle that allowed Oracle to become the powerhouse it was will now work against it (stock options, infrastructure boom in databases etc...). Oracle is NOT an attractive investment.

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