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Biotech / Medical : AMLN (DIABETES DRUGS)
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To: tom jones who wrote (1399)6/7/1998 7:54:00 PM
From: arnie h   of 2173
 
Tom: It doesn't seem too likely to me MM will be right unless we see a big jump in price tomorrow. From the jump in price in April it seems reasonable that a deal is in the works. But in this case, there doesn't seem to be great incentive on the part of the new company to complete a deal quickly unless a competitive party is involved. If that were so, we would not have seen the large recent drop in price.
There is incentive to complete a deal before the Europe results are in since the price would presumably be higher with favorable results. What the incentive would be to complete the deal within 2 weeks isn't clear. From a negotiating standpoint, it's better to let AMLN drain down some more money. And I might note deals aren't done until they're done (to paraphrase Yogi Berra). So how any non-psychic could know a deal would be signed within 2 weeks isn't clear.

If the stock jumps big time tomorrow,though, forget the above.

Have a good week,
Arnie,
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