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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)
LU 2.690+5.1%Jan 2 9:30 AM EST
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To: Mr.Fun who wrote (14014)3/22/2000 11:06:00 AM
From: Doug   of 21876
 
Mr Fun: Optical networking WAN/MAN are industries that will have diminishing returns with extended time. A little similar to what happened in the Computer Industry. Light has a finite speed which is the same for all the players and therfore the players need to make the maximum of this wide window of oppurtunity in Fiber.

The dominant player will be one who can offer the most effective total system inclusive of all the passive and active components. Most of the players have fairly standard Modulators,Circulators, OXC's , Couplings and Amplifiers. What distinguishes them are their DWDM capacity
, dispersion limits, thermal stability and ofcourse their switch capacity and error rates.

NT seem to be all over the map when it comes to switches. It would appear that they are attempting to offer the widest selection. I dont see the reason for that specially if the
reliability/error and access times are comparable to each other. Their recent acquisitions appear to be desperate.

There is no doubt that the switch will be the factor that decides who dominates the market. I would be thankful if you or any one else closer to the Industry could give us a sitrep on the various switches now available and the R&D work current in Bell Labs.

Thanks.
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