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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: Zoltan! who wrote (1402)2/3/1997 6:29:00 AM
From: Joe Gleason   of 13594
 
Back to the Basic - TOP REASON's AOL will FAIL!

I'll Give them credit (AOL or should we call them LOL-lot's of laughs) They've been a good promoter and training ground for internet!- Kinda wetting people's apitite... But AOL is spending BIG money putting in the equiv to telegraph lines, all in the wake of the Cable co's breathing down there neck: Putting in fibor voice lines (equiv)

1) There Debt structure is dangerous:
2) MSN is now starting to get serious about advertising:
Plus they include a video and they have back door products
to sell- making it VERY profitable for them to loose on the
the entry!
3) Who would pay 19.95 a month when they can get it from cable
for @10+ times the speed and NO additional phone line
4) Internet will intergrate with TV in the future
5) AOL's content is NOT special or pripatory - (yes, some is but it's really just a mirror of what the net in itself will become) If people like what they see on AOL they'll recreate it off line)Plus good groups are leaving on a regular basis!
6) The truth of switch overs will start to become known! (people who use aol to start, then switch)
7) A competitor could pay customers to SWITCH TO there system!
Many of them offer a $20.00 finders fee now.. Plus give a 1 month free! - Someone could easly up that to $40 and give it straight to the customer!

There's more- But I'll be honest the big one is Cable!

I was going to post how they could get out of this mess, but I am short this puppy! - It would be a tough dance!
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