The Flat Tire Scenario of Risk Analysis
-- DJ Drummond
PoliPundit.com
<snip>
There is no automatic superiority of the Conservative mind over the Liberal one by nature or potential. But where the Liberal mind once created the concept of citizen rights and government accountability, the present variety resorts to rote recitation of slogans presented by unimaginative madmen. The Conservative mind finds itself born in an environment where his position is constantly challenged, and he must be able to defend it from any direction of attack. The facts are observed by the Conservative, and he changes his opinion to address that reality. The Liberal now finds himself alienated by evidence, and so he shuns it, rather than change course.
I work with conditions and scenarios of risk. It can be difficult to explain unpleasant facts to people, but sometimes an analogy helps present the matter in a way they can accept. One of those analogies, I call the ‘Flat Tire Scenario’.
If you are driving along, and have a flat tire, it does not matter how good the other tires are. You can have three of the newest, best-brand tires on your car, but if the fourth tire is flat, you aren’t going anywhere until you deal with that flat. The same thing happens in any real-world condition which involves a critical flaw; no matter what else you say, or how strong you think you are in those other areas, until you deal with the critical flaw, you can’t succeed. The Conservatives have a few bumps in their plans and method, but the basics are in good shape. The Liberals have a serious flaw in their political ideology; their worldview is not based on reality, but ideology. And until (unless) they choose to address that error and correct it, they’re not going to fix their flat and get moving again.
polipundit.com |
