King David: Good to hear from you again.
I think you are ALMOST spot-on when you say: "the ultimate question in my mind is still 'are there enough people willing to use this type of service to drive the transaction volumes and stock price skywards in a hurry?'"
Just change "in a hurry" to "inexorably" and I would answer the question "yes, absolutely."
IMO, there are already enough people using Quicken, Managing Your Money, electronic brokerages, and other electronic commerce (such as Premier Travel, Amazon and so forth) to allow CKFR to grow at its current rate -- or more likely, an ACCELERATING rate -- for years to come.
Yes, there will always be a large fraction (25%?) of the population whose VCR's will blink 12:00 forever, and who will never use PC banking, billpay or e-bill. But even if its 50%, that leaves room to double, redouble and re-re-double the current customer base for a good long time. And given how cheaply CKFR can process transactions at the margin, a doubling of the customer base will produce an exponential increase in net income.
All IMO, of course. I think CKFR is cheap at current prices. And I think it is quite significant that Kight says CKFR is signing up three billers for every one signed up by Gates. Kight impresses me more and more, and MSFDC seems IMO to be struggling. |
