Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It? Message Board

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Politics : Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It?

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From: calgal	8/18/2012 10:04:51 PM
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The Blog Morning Jay: Why Did Biden Play the Race Card? 6:00 AM, Aug 17, 2012 • By JAY COST Single Page Print Larger Text Smaller Text Alerts What to make of Joe Biden’s apparent racial demagoguery this week in Danville, Virginia? Team Obama dismissed it as having nothing to do with race, but this is likely wrong: Biden certainly seemed to be referencing slavery, was doing so in a Southern dialect, and speaking in a city that is roughly split between whites and African Americans. Why would he do this? Isn’t the black vote already in the bag? Yes and no. Yes, insofar as Obama will win an overwhelming victory among African Americans in 2012, just as all previous Democrats have done since 1936. But there is a danger for the president: Obama’s path to reelection depends not simply on doing as well as previous Democrats with African Americans, but doing much better. Doing only as well as John Kerry, Al Gore, or Bill Clinton with the black vote would imperil Obama’s chances in November. We can quantify this by examining how Obama’s improvement with the black vote in 2008 relative to John Kerry boosted his overall margin. Overall, Obama did better than Kerry by about 5 points because he improved with all racial and ethnic groups. Nevertheless, his improvement with African Americans provided a very significant boost all by itself. John Kerry won 88 percent of the black vote in 2004, which was 11 percent of the total electorate. That means 9.7 percent of the electorate in 2004 was African Americans who voted for Kerry.

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