John:
Next support is @ $50 on QCOM the break today doesn't look
good. Lets hope its a false break but investors have been
hoping for that since $202.
I haven't checked since the weekend but many of the bell
weathers were close to breaking supports, GE, IBM, C, HWP,
to name a few (I'm not invested in any of them so I don't
check the charts every day).
At the same time the NYSEBP is in X's as well as two of the
short term indicators (which have now reversed to O's). So
short term things can get a little rough although I am very
long right now (until the DOW breaks 10335, NAZ @ 3,800).
On the semi's you can see from todays action there was a
lot of selling going on (they hit bear correction yesterday
on PnF). In both the IC's and equipments.
I am taking the risk this short term is just until after
the holiday BUT if you remember companies sold off last
quarter on earnings so this risk is not wise from a
preservation of capital standpoint. IBM has been talking a
good 2nd half for 6 months, lets see if they push it out
now. While they are not the leader they once were they
still are awful strong in a lot of market areas.
Many think we'll have a summer rally. Well the Europeans
take a 4 week vacation with the majority of it being in the
6 week period b/4 labor day. If my memory serves me techs
in general are weak in this period. There are always
exceptions but I plan to have 50% cash between now and then.
Note I've been known to be too early and too late. I hope
my exits won't be too late (SNDK was to late).
The winners of course will be the high growth companies
which exceed expectations AND will continue to grow at a
high rate for the next year even if the economy is slowing
(not just 2 more quarters if the semi cycle is hitting a
blip).
Well who are they? <gg> Damed if I know but I like the
following tech areas (the companies are just some in the
respective areas and I don't have a position in the
majority of them) but as you pointed out valuation is an
issue. If there is any downside surprise the stock will be
shot.
1) Storage - SANS & NAS: EMC(King), BRCD, QLGC/ANCR, NTAP, EMLX,
2) Fiber optics - GLW, JDSU, SDLI, (Hey I sold this one last Dec. and never got back in)
3) Wireless - QCOM, CAMP.
I'm also in a couple of small companies WSTL today which is
a DSL play (and if it breaks I'll dump it) and CCUR which
is a Video On Demand play (Cox and Time Warner are using
thier servers in the trial rollout). I believe both are
either in the beginning (WSTL) or 3 months from the
beginning (CCUR) from a significant ramp in revenues. I'm
holding off on WIND since
1) My buy in target hasn't been reached and while I think
$32ish is a good price I think there will be one more
buying opportunity down the road (mid 20's).
Just late day ramblings while I do a tax return.
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