The "invasion" begins--earnestly
Thomas Barnett
Dateline: somewhere outside Princeton NJ, 10 October 2005
If you had described to me last week the big scenario in which thousands of U.S. troops would be streaming into Pakistan on short notice, I would have figured some sort of terrorist strike in the United States triggering a knee-jerk intervention to roust out Osama bin Laden and the Al Qaeda in NW Pakistan as a sign of "will."
Instead, Pakistan suffers a huge earthquake and guess which country will probably end up sending in the most stuff and people? Of course, the Americans, as always.
And so this earthquake perhaps becomes a turning point for far more positive security relations between our two countries (already rather strong and yet also rather tense too, as evidenced by my assumed scenario above--I mean, who else would you consider invading if OBL pulled off something big in the U.S. tomorrow?), just like it did between the U.S. and Indonesia following the Tsunamis.
Then again, we could be surpassed in this effort, and perhaps in the altering of bilateral relations, by India. India showed up big time in private-sector giving and military response on the Tsunamis. New Delhi could end up being the biggest player out of sheer proximity and India's growing ability and willingness to act like an advanced power in times like this.
And then, what of China? Pakistan's longtime military patron of sorts. Do the Chinese show up?
This will be one to watch, as I said a couple of days ago, perhaps a serious System Perturbation for good in the Global War on Terrorism.
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