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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (14247)1/6/2000 2:52:00 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Mike, you have already had several responses to your post. To review, First:

I agree that the estimate, based on cell phone sales, was too high.

However:

The present cell phones are replaced on a two year cycle. This is totally different that what we have experienced with other phones up to now.

The chip will be in a lot more than just phones. I guess we can regard the chip as the guts of a modem, and, by that time, the chip itself may be an integrated modem. When you spin out everything that this chip will be in by then, it might work out to two or three times his estimate.

He did not allow for the profit from the sale of the chip, only the royalty.

On the other hand:

If you postulate a 5% royalty on the cell phone based on present prices, you will be way high, because the volume will reduce the real price

The chip profit will drop due to volume.

Finally:

His estimate is still to low, based on your DD!
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