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Technology Stocks : Zitel-ZITL What's Happening
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To: Larry Davis who wrote (1428)12/4/1996 6:11:00 PM
From: kahunabear   of 18263
 
My current strategy is to short VIAS through the coming M/Z announcments. I MAY then short ZITL. Below are my arguments about why I think the VIAS solution will not be successful. The M/Z announcements should have a short term negative effect on VIAS. Regardless of what you think about ZITL, I feel you have to assume their announcements will be VERY positive. Buy the rumor sell the news.

I think IT executives will be hesitant to buy into the VIAS solutions. VIAS has a whole series of applications and consulting services aimed at helping COBOL shops better understand their applications and the Y2K date code implications. This involves buying into a lot of proprietary technology that sits on top of the existing COBOL applications. The cost of purchasing these applications, the consulting required to implement them, and the training of internal personnel to use them seems prohibitive. ITexecutives have a lot of pressure to spend their marginal dollars on client/server and intranet solutions these days. It is hard for me to see them spending a lot of bucks on revamping their approach to maintaining their COBOL systems. I think the vast majority will opt to let contract or internal COBOL maintenance programmers do the work, which seems to be greatly exagerrated by the press. They may even use the Matridigm (life on Mars) solution. Even if they don't, the hype should hurt VIAS.

These are my opinions only. Based on the knowledge I have been able to gleen from visiting websites and reading these threads.

Britt
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