The Corner - HOW DOES MIERS GET OUT OF COMMITTEE? [Andy McCarthy]
There are 18 members of the Judiciary Committee, 10 Republicans and 8 Democrats. Of the Dems, 3 – Leahy, Feingold and Kohl – voted in favor of Chief Justice Roberts, citing his manifest qualifications as barely outweighing their concern that he would not be a reliable defender of fundamental rights (translation: abortion rights).
The one thing we can probably be certain about with Miers is that she will not give Democrats any assurance that she would uphold Roe and its progeny. (I take it as a given that neither will she say outright that she would reverse them. Even with the administration’s nod-and-wink about her religiosity and pro-life leanings, she will – more anxiously than most – take the Roberts/Ginsburg/Breyer tack of declining to discuss much beyond name, rank and serial number when it comes to questions about precedents and judicial philosophy.)
If I am right about that, then it looks like 8 Democrat no votes. As much as they might prefer Miers to an originalist or at least a known-quantity judicial conservative, it’s all about Roe for the Dems and, especially, their base. It is no insult to Ms. Miers to observe that she does not compare to the new Chief Justice qualification-wise. As such qualifications were the sole basis for 3 Dems to vote for Roberts despite their Roe worries, I don’t see how they vote yes on Miers. (I understand they are not bound to be consistent; I am calculating that they would be here due to the Roe factor.)
That means two GOP defections would defeat Miers in committee (and even one would send her to the full senate without a recommendation that she be approved). Given the line-up – Specter, Hatch, Grassley, Kyl, DeWine, Sessions, Graham, Cornyn, Brownback, and Coburn – are there really 9 or 10 yes votes there? I doubt it. I’m betting no more than 8 yeses – and maybe considerably fewer than that.
RE: HOW DOES MIERS GET OUT OF COMMITTEE? [John Podhoretz]
Of course there will be a full Senate vote for Miers. There was for Robert Bork too, who was reported out of committee unfavorably and went on to lose in a 58-42 vote. But an unfavorable report out of committee will doom her nomination. It will mean that every Democrat in the Senate will be free to vote against her and will free up Republicans as well. So Andy's interesting analysis of her potential problem in the Senate Judiciary Committee should be worrisome to the White House.
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