Owen--let me tell you a little story--
In May 1996 I bought 10,000 shares of Syquest at 5 even. I jumped in on a friend's strong recommendation without reading up on the company's fundamentals. The next day I began reading MF bbs for the first time ever. I didn't know then all the games people play, especially the shorts sowing seeds of panic. The postings and the company's financials told me that Syquest would be under in a month.
Two days later, I sold mid-day at 5 1/2. Patted myself on the back for making a nice 10% profit in a few days and bailing out of a loser. The stock closed at 6 1/8 that day (a Friday, I believe). The next week, Syquest had its widely-reported meteoric rise, 2- 4 points a day until it peaked 18 7/8 less than a week after I sold. I tossed and turned every night during the run-up, counting all the chickens I never thought would hatch and silently screaming "when is this f-cker going to stop!"
With the passage of time, the psychic wounds have healed and I have learned:
1. I will never have another Syquest-type opportunity, to quadruple my money in a week--ever again. It's just as well. I would have decided I am blessed and/or a genius, and lost it all and then some later.
2. I have lost far more money selling my winners too early than investing in losers.
3. Don't dwell on bad or unfortunate decisions; just take a deep breath and get back in the game.
ITII is the best investment I have ever made--150% gain in nine months. I think the stock will continue to rise in 1997, for reasons noted below. But I am also trying not to "fall in love" with ITII, which we all know no one should do with any stock.
To answer your question, First Call says 3-Q earnings will be released the week of 10/24. I will call ITII at the end of the quarter and try to get the exact date. Last time, ITII didn't have the exact release date and conference call info until shortly before the release.
ITII's P/E at today's close is now 19.3, against an industry P/E of 26.2. At industry P/E, ITII would be trading at $38.77. But ITII should be trading higher than the industry P/E, because its growth rate is 20%, v. industry growth rate of 13%. (That's why ITII's PEG ratio is .89 against the industry's 2.01, per First Call).
ITII was trading in the mid-30's a year ago. The only difference between ITII a year ago and now is that the company today is more product and customer-diversified, and its management has demonstrated superb skill and integrity through what the market thought would be a fatal blow, the loss of ADT, 40% of the company's revenues.
Mutual fund managers don't get impressed overnight. They need to see a track record to justify their decisions. ITII's own impressive results to date have converged with a growing perception that small and mid-caps are the place to be to rack up strong gains in the near term.
Today's volume was unbelievable. I was to Omaha and back on business today (convinced Warren Buffett to move 10% of Berkshire Hathaway's porfolio to ITII*), so I did not see the numbers until tonight. Also looks like there was some profit-taking. I suppose some TA's would say there's going to be resistance at 30, and that it will take 3 or 4 runs to break through. Hard to say with ITII, which broke decisively through 20 last June:
06/23/97 81,600 18 17 1/2 17 1/2
06/24/97 117,200 19 13/16 17 7/8 19 5/8
06/25/97 465,400 22 3/8 21 5/8 22
Any thoughts out there on whether we break 30 by Labor Day?
*<ggg>
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