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RDRAM will dominate memory market, say Rambus developers
Posted : 21 May 2001
To those who say that DDR will soon become the mainstream desktop PC memory, Rambus and its supporters have the following statistics to offer: Samsung, the largest volume supplier of RDRAM, is increasing its annual production volume from 60 million last year to over 240 million units this year; Toshiba, the second largest supplier, from 27.6 million yearly to 96 million yearly by September 2002; and, Elpida Memory Inc., the third largest supplier, from 24 million to 60 million yearly output.
"RDRAM is poised for greater market penetration," said Steve Chen, VP of Rambus Inc., at the Rambus Developer Forum held last May 14 at Taipei, "leave aside RDRAM losing its share to DDR or SDRAM."
Jon Kang, SVP of Samsung memory division, explained the reason for this optimism. "The criticism against RDRAM is its high price. Presently RDRAM is 50 percent [more costly] than SDRAM. People who believe more in technology than in cost pay the higher price. Our RDRAM cost reduction migration processes have been very successful. With the emergence of 256Mb 4i-bank RDRAM, the price differential between RDRAM and SDRAM will be between 5 to 10 percent only." This next-generation RDRAM chipset is planned for next year.
Chen explained the reason for the anticipated fall in RDRAM price. "When using 4i for 256Mb, the die size of RDRAM will be within 10 percent of that used for SDRAM, which is the main reason for RDRAM price falling. Cost is the main reason for shift to 256Mb from 128Mb at present, " he said. In 2H02 512Mb RDRAM with 4i-bank will be available, with die-size 3 percent of comparable SDRAM, thus bringing the cost further down.
Kang dismissed the claim of DDR makers that DDR memory chips will be priced the same as SDRAM. "Die size for making DDR is bigger than that of SDRAM. There is no technology on the horizon that will make the two die sizes equal, " he explained.
"While RDRAM cost will move down, " said Rick Rutkowski, technical marketing manager of Rambus, "the application base will move up. " RDRAM is used in over 250 products today.
Chen said that the need for higher memory bandwidth in future applications will enable "RDRAM to emerge as the best solution. " He said that in two years networking communications will need a bandwidth of 21Gbps, and servers, 12.8Gbps. "RDRAM alone is poised to meet such high bandwidth requirements, " said Chen. Consumer electronic products are emerging with features needing high bandwidth, such as high-definition display resolution, picture-in-picture, simultaneous MPEG stream decode, 3D rendering and games with real-time virtual-reality graphics, which will create new application base for RDRAM.
Jerry Shen, associate VP of Asustek, said that CPU/chipset trend towards P4P gave RDRAM "a better chance than ever for mainstream system. " He explained, "RDRAM can easily match P4P bandwidth requirements. Dual-channel DDR can meet P4P requirements, but there are far too many pins per channel for this solution to be realistic. Better granularity of 256Mb RDRAM is another advantage."
Matthew Mattina, CPU architect of Compaq Computer Corp., said that RDRAM helped Compaq meet its goal of high capacity, performance and scalability. "Outstanding memory bandwidth, high memory capacity per pin, fast page-hit latency reducing the need for large on-chip cache, and 1.8V RSL easy to drive/receive with 21364's VDD provided by RDRAM meet our goals, " he said.
Intel sees an era emerging with multiple memory technologies. "New memory technologies will primarily be driven by desktop and server platform volumes, " said Glendy Liu, technical marketing manager of Intel, "and not by mobile and workstation platforms. RDRAM is the best technology for Pentium 4 processor platform. Pentium 4 processor ramp has already started the transition from SDRAM to RDRAM. However, SDRAM will continue to be used in cost-sensitive segments, such as Pentium III and low-end Pentium 4. One-third of Pentium 4 processors shipped this year will use SDRAM. "
Liu said that a significant support will emerge for DDR in the desktop in 1H/02. "This support may not necessarily be lasting, " adds Liu, "because extensive validation is required to ensure that DDR is robust. Competitive RDRAM pricing may limit DDR's role."
—By Kirtimaya Varma
Electronic Engineering Times – Asia
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