| Paul: AGN. I missed the move, too...but should one alter process over a missed move? Value investing is about getting a better understanding of the numbers and the story. Often buying on a news item means buying the impact of that news as the market has already factored it. Apparently this wasn't the case here...or botox may be, or be perceived as, a bigger trend than the news originally implied. In the past, I've sometimes applied a 'Ready, Fire, Aim' strategy of buying story or fire-sale price, then researching to see if I wanted to keep it....selling quickly if it looked uglier than originally assessed. I was tempted to do that here, but the general sag in the druggies caused me to hold off. Then, before the FDA news, I read Forbes 'Accounting Arobics' peice, and thought: ELAN redux, dodged a bullet [One that still may be chambered - it adjusted earnings down 1/3]. Then the FDA approval and the positive WSJ peice on Botox tupperware-like parties. Who knew? |
