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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (143354)1/12/2002 8:00:44 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
My reply to Allan on the workspace zone.
No chance of a squeeze here.
Too many calls in the money.
Too much optimism.
We are headed exactly towards max pain which is QQQ 40.
I called that when QQQ was at 42+.

There is
1) No way MSFT closes above 70
2) No way CSCO closes above 20
3) No way INTC closes above 35

There are an enormous number of puts and calls that will expire worthless at QQQ 40. The crooks will collect both halves of the option pie when that happens.

Huge huge bets against MSFT and even huger bets on MSFT at 70. Look for MSFT to close at 69.98 at expiry

INTC will close at precicely 35 or 32 1/2 but I have not figures out which.

At any rate without rallies in those 3 there is no broad rally. In fact I expect to see stuff like KLAC BRCM BRCD VRTS die sharply.

Now.....
If you want to talk post expiry.....
That is another story.
There are still huge QQQ 40 puts for Feb, but almost no calls. Let the bears load up with shorts puts etc, going out to FEB, then crush them NEXT month.

You could be correct, just early IMHO.
No, I have not bet huge on this theory, (unfortunately) cause I left a lot on the table from INTC and CSCO much higher when I called it. Also take with a grain of salt my precice calls of 69.98 and (34.97 or 32 1/2 on the nose for INTC).

M
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