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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup
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To: Sharck who started this subject4/2/2001 8:02:08 PM
From: besttrader   of 37746
 
I promise last post of day. :) Here is a must read article!:

From rumordude:

When will the selling end?

I ask that question everyday. I went back and looked a book I read a long while ago
(it's out of print thanks to the bull market we had) for some answers. The book is called
Panic Profits, it goes on and on describing all the major bear markets and their
aftermath. It doesn't make pleasant reading, especially after reading the great great
interview TSC did with Ravi Suria yesterday at
thestreet.com One thing that jumped
out was that the whole process of the bear market isn't just destruction in prices, it is
also the slow destruction of the will of the buyers with time. A garden variety bear
market last between 9 to 12 months, but no one will call this one a garden variety at
this stage of the game. So we can only look at history for comparisons. The worst
ones went anywhere between 3 to 10 years. And thanks to Ravi Suria, I realized that
the great bubble isn't the dotcom bubble, it was the telecom bubble. And it touch more
sectors and burned more capital. Capital that isn't coming back anytime soon. While
looking at the red on my screen almost daily, I catch myself comparing the action in
the market to the ones in my memory. Unfortunately I am not old enough to remember
the ones in the 1930s or the 1970s. The rules and behaviors I have learned was fresh
from the great bull market that had just expired. And they don't really apply anymore.
Which is why it is so easy to be fooled by the breakouts and supports we see out
there. They just don't have same meaning anymore.
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