Bush Leads Kerry By 5 Points in Gallup/USA Today/CNN Survey
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush leads John Kerry, the four-term Massachusetts senator, by 5 percentage points among likely voters in a Gallup Organization poll for USA Today and Cable News Network. Bush was ahead by 8 points in the Gallup survey released last week.
Bush is backed by 51 percent of 1,195 likely voters questioned Oct. 22-24, and Kerry is supported by 46 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In a Gallup survey Oct. 14-16, Bush led 52 percent to 44 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was backed by 1 percent in both polls.
With eight days until the election, nine national polls, including surveys by Newsweek magazine and the Washington Post, show the race statistically tied. Bush has a lead outside the margin of error in polls by Gallup, Reuters/Zogby and Fox News.
Kerry is campaigning today in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Bush is visiting Colorado and Iowa.
The tally in the Electoral College determines who wins. These votes are apportioned among the states based on congressional representation. State polls show neither candidate has amassed the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
In the Newsweek poll Bush led Kerry 48 percent to 46 percent among 880 likely voters surveyed Oct. 21-22. The spread is within the poll's 4-point error margin. A Washington Post survey released yesterday showed the two candidates in a statistical tie. Bush had backing from 49 percent of 1,638 likely voters the Post polled Oct. 20-23, and Kerry had 48 percent. The poll's margin of error is 3 percentage points.
Bush is backed by 48 percent of 1,204 likely voters questioned Oct. 22-24 by Zogby, and Kerry is supported by 45 percent. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Reuters/Zogby polls over the previous three days showed Bush up 2 points. Five percent of likely voters remain undecided.
State Polls
Zogby telephone surveys Oct. 21-24 of about 600 likely voters in each of 10 closely contested states show the candidates statistically tied in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Together those states have 89 electoral votes.
Bush is up by 5 points in Ohio, which has 20 electoral votes, and 5 points in New Mexico, which has 5 electoral votes. Kerry leads by 10 points in Michigan, which has 17 electoral votes. Each poll has an error margin of 4.1 percent.
In Hawaii, a state Bush lost to Democrat Al Gore by 20 points in 2000, the candidates are statistically tied, according to a poll of 612 likely voters by the Honolulu Star-Bulletin and KITV 4 News.
Texas, Utah
Bush is backed by 46 percent compared with Kerry's 45 percent in the Oct. 17-20 poll, which has an error margin of plus or minus 4 points. Hawaii has four electoral votes.
A review of state polls shows Bush ahead in 20 states, including Texas and Utah, with 168 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 12 states, including New York and Oregon, with 184 electoral votes. In 18 states that have 186 electoral votes, including Pennsylvania and Florida, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error.
A Time magazine poll released yesterday found almost half of registered voters are very or somewhat concerned that vote fraud and problems with counting ballots will mean the winner of the Nov. 2 election won't be legitimate.
The tracking polls by Reuters/Zogby and the Post are conducted daily and the results are a rolling average of three or four days' worth of results. A portion of the total sample is interviewed each day. The earliest results are dropped when a new day is added.
Zogby International is based in Utica, New York. Reuters Group Plc, the world's largest publicly traded provider of financial information, is based in London.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Catherine Dodge in Washington at cdodge1@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Glenn Hall in Washington at ghall@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: October 25, 2004 15:03 EDT |
