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Gold/Mining/Energy : KERM'S KORNER

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To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14423)12/19/1998 7:10:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman   of 15196
 
IN THE NEWS / Oil Staggers Up After Latest Pounding

LONDON, Dec 18 - Volatile oil markets paused for breath early on Friday
following a dramatic collapse that wiped a further 11 percent from already
battered prices.

International benchmark Brent 13 cents gain in early trade to $10.22 paled against
Thursday's slump of more than $1.20 a barrel.

Some 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iraqi crude exports weighed on the
market as supplies continued to flow on Friday despite a second wave of overnight
U.S-led military strikes there.

Border monitors from Dutch firm Saybolt, employed by the United Nations to check
Iraqi oil sales under the exchange for food and medicine programme remained at their
posts.

Falls gathered pace on Thursday after a meeting of key producers Saudi Arabia,
Venezuela and non-OPEC Mexico in Madrid failed to pull out any new moves to
combat an imposing global supply surplus.

The slump more than wiped out gains of over 80 cents made on Wednesday as the
United States prepared to launch missile strikes on Iraq and traders wondered if the
producer trio could come up with surprise new output cuts.

It pulled prices back within range of 12-year lows set just last week at $9.60 and
heaped fresh misery on oil producers already enduring the lowest yearly average price
for over twenty years.

The only concrete new measure to emerge from Madrid was Venezuela's
commitment to extend cuts by six months to the end of 1999, matching pledges from
Saudi Arabia and Mexico.

This disappointed analysts who have been calling for a further 1.5 million bpd of
producer cuts to try and pep up prices.

But Saudi Arabia claimed to have secured a new commitment from Venezuela for a
fresh attack on global oversupply.

A senior Saudi source said the the three producers, who earlier this year marshalled
a 3.1 million bpd producer cutback package, have no qualms about making further
sacrifices.

Venezuela has previously said it could not consider fresh cuts as its new government
prepares to take office in February.

The producer trio also agreed to enforce rigorous compliance with their combined
cuts of 1.45 million bpd. Accusations of Venezuelan indiscipline was among the
disputes that stopped OPEC reaching any agreement at an acrimonious November
meeeting.

Renewed co-operation could prepare the ground for potential new producer action
early next year, analysts said warning that a long dispute over Iran's production level
could block progress.

Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Naimi admitted on Friday that there is between 150
and 250 million barrels too much oil in the market.

"It will take time between now and year end 1999 to withdraw this overhang," Naimi
said in Norway for a consultative meeting with Oil and Energy Minister Marit Arnstad.

Naimi said the supply glut had far more bearing on the state of the oil price than the
conflict in Iraq.

"There is too much oil on the market to worry about what is happening in Iraq," he
said.
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