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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: 100cfm who wrote (14290)1/7/2000 11:53:00 AM
From: Eric Jacobson   of 54805
 
I see jdsu's key to gorillahood or maintaining king with a bad attitude will be their ability to convert from individual components to producing cutting edge modules.

100, my photonics knowledge is also somewhat limited, based mostly on what I've learned from owning HLIT for several years. Two other trends in this industry to keep an eye on are: (1) "expanding" bandwidth through equipment which reduces the size of the data passing through the pipe, such as video compression; and (2) migrating from active to passive to solid state components. I've read several articles on this topic recently, but unfortunately can't find a link at the moment.

I believe these trends form some of the basis for why George Gilder is so excited by photonics in general. It shares many of the same traits that have been so successful for INTC over the years. If you think about it, it costs less money to produce and operate this type of equipment, especially once you reach solid state circuitry, and yet the bandwidth gains are tremendous, so people are willing to pay a lot to implement the new technology. Companies which can exploit this gap between incrementally lower production costs and higher (or at least steady) prices can be tremendously successful.

IMO, this is an industry that is subject to rapid technological innovation. Most of the IPR is in the public domain, jointly developed and owned, or is rapidly overcome by newer innovations.
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