One of the prime pieces of info that was missing on the excellent post by Gus, #1375, relating Pennsylvania Merchant Group's EPS calculations re: distinct possibilities for KM eps in 1999, was.... the # of shares they estimate AXC will have outstanding. I assumed it was 50M, which is about what I've expected it'd be, taking the current 45-46M, add 1.15M for this secondary, throw in some stock options, 2-3M shares of higher priced stock to buy out 70M in 8% debt due end of this year, and then some incredible KM profits allowing them to self finance future growth, and voila, they could keep shares outstanding around the 50M mark!
However, PMG used 80.8M shares in their 99 eps calculations. I've not seen their documents, so I can't comment on why or how likely their reasoning is for a near doubling in dilution, but I thought I'd rustle up some eps figures using 60M shares outstanding, far more likely IMO, of course w/o knowing all that PMG does. Anyways, for food for thought, and incentive for share buying by the reluctant, here's PMG's 99 eps matrix table using their figures of 80.8 and mine of 60M
80.8 figure/net profit figure calculations/my60M figure
--------- ----------------------------- -----------
$.22 10% ms @$.30/platter=$18M $.30
$1.56 30% ms @$.70/platter=$126M $2.10
2.26 30% ms @$1 /platter=$180M $3
6.68 90% ms @ 1 /p =$540M $9/eps!
11.13 100 ms @ 1.5/p =$900M $15/eps!
I throw my lot in with the 90%(or even 100%) market share at $1, or $540M in profit. One thing that could drastically change this equation, tho, is whether AXC's target of "blended returns of $1 per platter" is AFTER TAX OR BEFORE TAX!!! If it's before tax, well, all these figures would be ~40% lower.
Price action very frustrating right now. Depressing to read of TA predictions of 7's again! Never thought we'd break below 8 3/4! So, as usual for many many months, the long term picture here is getting brighter and clearer, but the price is nowhere near reflecting that potential. In looking again at IOMG's lovely 3 year chart, it had almost it's whole upward move from 7 to 55 in a space of only 5 months! Waiting with white knuckles for double digits again, or even just $9 a share! Sorry for the odd shaping of this post, but it's the only good table showing alternative to mushing the table all together on normal font. In future if doing a table I'll try to remember to do comments and tables on seperate posts. Cheers from -50 degree wind chill Minnesota. |
