Battle for Central Asia
Security Watchtower blog
This week Radio Free Europe finished a five part series titled the "Battle for Central Asia," that provided a good deal of insight into some of the dynamics at play in the region. Included below is a link to each of the five parts as well as some key points expressed that we extracted from the overall reporting.
Part I: Central Asia: Oil, Diplomacy, And Military Might
Part II: China-Russia Bloc Challenges U.S. In Region
Part III:China Brings Electronics, But Not Democracy
Part IV: Russia And U.S. Often At Odds In Region
Part IV: Iran, Turkey Struggle To Influence Region
* "Russia has been able to maintain its monopoly over the hydrocarbons export routes. But U.S. companies have become major players in the contest to develop oil and gas resources. And more recently, Chinese entities have become increasingly present."
* "If you come to any market in Central Asia, you can see all goods come from Russia or from China. So both countries are also interested in Central Asia [for trade]."
* "Russian, Chinese, and American interests converge on the counterterror and stability fronts. All three powers agree that global terrorism poses a common threat wherever it lays down roots -- as Al-Qaeda did in Afghanistan. But Moscow and Beijing have jointly opposed the growing U.S. military presence in the region."
* "Russia and China have responded in part to America’s increased regional presence by developing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The organization groups China, Russia, and four of the Central Asian republics --Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan."
* "Unlike Beijing and Moscow, Washington is pushing Central Asian governments to institute human rights and democratic reforms. That insistence has raised suspicion and sometimes anger among Central Asian leaders."
* "Since the incidents in Andijon, the Russians and Chinese have had the upper hand, at least in Uzbekistan. But also the regime of President [Kurmanbek] Bakiev in Kyrgyzstan has come out in fairly plain language and said that for Kyrgyzstan, strategically, in the long-term, Russia counts above all. You’ve seen some American involvement in Tajikistan but that's no way enough to offset Russian influence in that country on the political level, but also economically and on the level of military assistance."
* "Russia has always felt slighted by the U.S. military presence in the territory of the former Soviet Union. U.S. aircraft sitting on the tarmac of Soviet-built airfields is a psychological offense."
* "China will feel that if Central Asia is governed by the pro-U.S. regime or government, it will destabilize China's Xinjiang region and will give Beijing a lot of trouble."
* "What we are seeing now is the continuing and possibly even expanded U.S. military presence in Kyrgyzstan -- some sort of rebalancing -- most clearly in Uzbekistan, far less clearly in Kyryzstan and Tajikistan. I would say that for most Central Asian states, the relationship with the United States continues to be an important relationship."
* "One man expresses a common view when he says no foreign country can unseat Russia from its dominant regional position thanks to its history, language, and culture -- all of which remain intimately familiar to Kazakhs and other Central Asians."
* "After the events of the 'colored' revolutions in Georgia and in Ukraine, above all after the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, there are [no longer] any doubts in the political class as a whole concerning [the] contradiction -- basic contradiction -- of interests between the United States and Russia."
* "Since then Iran and Turkey have continued their relations with the Central Asian republics in the economic, political, and cultural spheres. But their influence in the region remains limited due to several factors. Iran and Turkey both have limited resources to expend in Central Asia and are hampered by foreign-policy priorities elsewhere."
* "Iran has been expanding its ties mainly with Turkmenistan but also with Tajikistan. Trade has increased between the countries and Tehran has heavily invested in Tajikistan’s transport and communication infrastructure.
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