Here is an example of why in-depth DD is so important, particularly for medical products. The following link addresses some new tumor ablation therapies.
http://www.rsna.org/NewsDetail.aspx?id=5458
Dr. Narayanan’s observations are correct: “Irreversible electroporation (IRE) and microwave ablation are among the newest ablative therapies showing promise as targeted treatments for complicated and inoperable forms of cancer, including pancreas and lung.” HOWEVER, even though some fairly recent trials are referenced, the microwave ablation he describes is now importantly outdated! Same goes for Dr. DuPuy’s statements – while he also endorses microwave ablation (MWA), he does not (in the subject article) recognize the major advance in MWA provided by BSD M.’s MTX-180. The clear reason for what might appear as an oversight is that the MTX-180 was not introduced until after the subject "recent" trials were done!
The MTX-180 uses synchronous-wave generation for up to three antennas. This is fundamentally what achieves the outstanding performance of the MTX-180. It was introduced during 2010, while the subject trials were done in 2009:
http://radiology.rsna.org/content/262/1/353.full.pdf
Dr. Dupuy has been a leading doctor in ablation techniques for some time. And, his more-recent comments extolling the MTX-180 are a super endorsement; bound to have impact.
I believe this is correct history synopsis:
Radiofrequency Ablation became, over time, the main Interventional Oncology technique -- during which time IO practice grew a lot, and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) became the dominant IO therapy – this despite frequent problems from burns and imprecise heating (the RF currents often bypassed the tumor by following nearby blood vessels, leading to damage of healthy tissue – an issue that MWA largely overcomes).
MIcrowave Ablation (MWA) later proved to be much better than RFA – was more effective and with far less problems.
BSD M. introduced the MTX-180, in 2010, which effectively utilized synchronous-wave heating from multiple antennas. This is a MAJOR advance for MWA – improved speed AND safety AND permitting treatments for larger tumors.
So, not only is it very likely the MTX-180 will – err, “quickly” -- become the leading IO machine, but the much better performance it is introducing should result in it displacing not only the RFA machines and old MWA machines but also much of the other IO machines (cryoablation, for example). There is NO sensible reason to believe the MTX-180 will not be very successful.
BSD Medical states that the (rapidly growing) market addressed by the MTX-180 is presently $2.3 billion/yr! Since it is likely this extolled machine will a) take over the dominant market segment now held by RFA equipment and also b) (because of the much enhanced therapy provided) garner additional market share from the other types of IO, is it not likely that MTX-180 sales can grow to $1 billion/yr or more?-- and fairly quickly? Comments, please -- while I am surely speculating, such is important for long-term investing. |
