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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Tradelite who wrote (145202)1/22/2002 3:33:34 PM
From: reaper   of 436258
 
as a follow-up to the message i just sent, in the 10-year period 1976-1985, existing home sales averaged 3.1mm a year, and if you take out the two years of DEEP recession (1982 & 1983, when sales were only 2.4mm and 2.0mm) they averaged 3.3mm.

so basically you have a LONG period of time (1976-1995) when existing home sales tracked very consistently between 3.0 and 3.9mm. in 1996 the number just TOOK OFF, and now we're running 5-6mm a year. since the take off in existing home sales (and recent acceleration) tracks very nicely with the booming credit expansion in the last 5 years, i'm going to lay the cause at the feet of increased credit and not at the feet of increased population (as population surely increased between 1975 and 1994 and there was no appreciable change in the existing home sales #).

Again, IMHO only, of course.

Cheers
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