How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 480.82

+0.6%

Dec 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: johnd who wrote (14515)	1/18/1999 8:24:00 PM
From: t2	of 74651

Johnd, I understand your point of why MSFT will try to talk its stock down at earnings. Last year at this time, the stock had declined from about 150 in July 97 to about by Jan 98 earnings release. I guess the employees were probably not that happy with their stock options which were issued on July 1/97. So MSFT announced a split which resulted in the huge stock move. This time the stock is actually up quite a bit since July 98 and there is less of a reason for MSFT to try to push stock up. However, given that investors are learning about MSFT policy with respect to its stock price, it will be harder to fool them. My feeling is the stock will trade at what the company is worth not what the executives want it to trade at. WHY? Because investors now have a better understanding of MSFT policy of understating true revenue and thus EPS. If the company does not report more than 61 cents, look for a big jump up in the unearned revenue account (and investors know about this also). They also know about the standard cautionary statement which has not only fooled investors but also "smart" ANALYSTS who had downgraded the stock after hearing such nonsense. Furthermore, NO REPUTABLE ANALYST WILL DOWNGRADE THIS STOCK ON WEDNESDAY. The only possibilities are no change or upgrade (and possibly an increase in price target. Now what will that do the price! YOU GOT IT -- UP UP AND AWAY!!! JMHO.

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