Leading Economic Indicators Rise 0.1 Percent
By HOPE YEN
.c The Associated Press
NEW YORK (April 18) - A key gauge of U.S. economic activity rose in March, suggesting continued growth in the months ahead, a private research firm said Thursday.
The New York-based Conference Board reported its Index of Leading Economic Indicators inched up 0.1 percent last month to 112.3 after holding steady in February. Analysts had forecast a 0.3 percent gain.
''The recovery in the leading index suggests the economy is poised for growth through late summer,'' said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein.
He said the small increase in the index was not surprising.
''Since the latest recession was short and shallow, it will not provide the thrust delivered by earlier recessions,'' Goldstein said.
Economists agreed.
''The report suggests that the economic expansion is under way and likely to continue, but probably at a modest pace,'' said Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc.
The index measures where the overall U.S. economy is headed in the next three to six months. It stood at 100 in 1996, its base year. Prior to holding steady in February, the index had risen four straight months.
The report coincided with the release of a Labor Department report earlier Thursday showing new claims for unemployment insurance inching up last week. For the work week ending April 13, new claims for jobless benefits edged up by a seasonally adjusted 1,000 to 445,000.
The report also comes a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan signaled that the central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates. He said the economy's future is looking better, but cautioned that risks remain of a faltering recovery if consumer spending and business investment aren't robust in the months ahead.
On Wall Street, the markets were lower Thursday morning, with the Dow Jones industrial average down 49 points at 10,172 and the Nasdaq composite index 16 points lower at 1,795.
In March, six of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index increased. The four negative contributors were building permits, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, real money supply and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods.
The coincident index, which measures current economic activity, rose 0.2 percent in March to 116.0. The index of lagging indicators, which reflects changes that have already occurred, fell 0.4 percent last month to 101.5.
The Conference Board is a nonprofit research and business group, with more than 2,700 corporate and other members around the world.
AP-NY-04-18-02 1103EDT
Copyright 2002 The Associated Press. |
