FRANCE [Andrew Stuttaford]
Here's a part of an e-mail from a (very smart) French friend:
"There have often been some riots and cars burnt, usually on New Years Eve. So at first, the government thought that this was just more of the same. Only after three of four nights did it understand the amplitude of what was going on, especially since TV was not making a big deal about it... I spoke with a friend who is chief of staff for one of Sarkozy's sub-ministers and he confirmed that by that time, (after 5 nights or so) police and fire departments were exhausted, since every incident had to be answered with a full deployment of forces, lest they be stoned from the project buildings. In any case, they ended up chasing ghosts, since the perpetrators would just disappear into the buildings, where of course, no one ever saw them.
"What's going to happen now?
"(1) Chirac is even more discredited than previously. (2) Although his actions will not have been sterling, Sarkozy will score points when all of this is over. This will help him in 07, even though it may prompt some disciplined response by the left against him. I think he becomes president. (3) In the meantime, we'll see more money thrown at the problem. Most of it will be for "soft" solutions such as cultural centers, skateboarding ramps, and policy recommendations by sociologists. There may be a drive towards better urbanism and transport infrastructure, perhaps even home ownership, but these things take time (4) The real issues of immigration, unemployment, alienation and law and order will not be addressed before 2007. Chirac has tried to reinvent his presidency every two years since 1997 and has failed (calling elections, new PM, European Constitution, New PM...).
"The real tragedy in this affair has been that everyone knew that this would happen one day. There was talk about it when I was a student. The political police" (also known as the RG) must have warned Sarkozy that we were reaching the breaking point in some quarters. That's why the first thing he did as Interior minister was to try to structure the Muslim constituency. The truth is that the immigration policy failed in 1973 or 1974 and was swept under the rug. Thirty years later we reach the breaking point at the same time as the wider social policy (the famed "French model") created in 1945 is morally and financially bankrupt. One last thing. However infuriating the French may be, no one in Europe can gloat about what is going on. Of course, some countries have done better (UK, Spain ) or worse (Germany) than France over the past 10 years. These events are part of a wider pattern that is affecting all of Europe."
Interesting. And bravo, monsieur, for "skateboarding ramps".. |
