Don't stop on my account! I appreciate the TA analysis that is contributed. I feel TA combined with solid fundamentals is great. Many thanks to those who gave some TA opinions re: AXC's price action, it helps me at least
Have some brief comments and ? re: AXC from info I got from someone who got info from the road show;
40% tax rate is cited by PMG with the eps estimates for 99. Is 40% the most likely corporate tax rate for AXC or are they making a wild, even high guess in the dark?
I notice PMG reports only 10% institutional ownership as of 1/13/97 on their research report. Can only go one way, UP. It's them we're waiting for to get on board and drive this thing thru the roof.
EPS estimates, past, present and future
95 $.46 $.19 actual operating eps
96 $.30 $.37 actual operating eps est.
97 $.54 this w/o royalties and Mitsu win (we hope! probably at least $.20 I expect from Mitsu) Also leaves out Maxtor's KM contribution, which I expect to be only a few pennies in 4Q, but altogether I think they can earn $.60-.80 this year
98 $2-5 from KM in TFI only, but whole market, my estimate
99 $5-8 from KM in MR/TFI, PMG predicts they'll take most of the market, but shy away from giving actual estimates for 98 & 99
On from there there are 100M platters estimated additional each year, would mean about $100M from KM yearly too.
Frankly, I can see eps reaching over $10 by or around turn of the century! Give THAT a PE multiple of 30+ and see why I'm frustrated by the lackluster price lately!
These are obviously best case scenarios, but highly likely given KM's ABSOLUTELY COMPELLING CASE for inclusion in TFI and at least in the lab so far, in MR. The cost savings in making extra platters and 2 heads (1 read and 1 write) for each platter are just too compelling for OEM's to ignore this baby.
Also, AXC was saying, and I have it on one of their presentation papers, that KM is REQUIRED for future platter technologies above KM. Don't know what to make of this, but they sure are confident it's a necessity!
Also, much faster pace of techno change nowadays bodes well for AXC. No 20 year waits anymore for the world to need their tech, IMO. Certainly the lag between research and commercialization is speeding up immensely since even the 60's and 70's.
And a question, was AXC one of the Nifty Fifty in the early 70's? |
