Ascend Communications (ASND) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 220.42

+4.9%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: casey (guessed password) who wrote (14660)	9/27/1997 7:29:00 AM
From: MoonBrother	of 61433

Just did some calculation on the earnings. Looks like ASND will have some really exciting upward move pretty soon. Here is what I got: ASND's yearly consensus is $1.34. So far it has earned $.62 in the 6 month ended on June 30. This qtr's consensus is $.33. If ASND can make it, that will leave Q4 only $.37 to make the year. Now we know that UUNet, NTT, Europe 56k and TNT deals are all gonna kick in in Q4, AND we know that Cascade business is rapidly picking up. Q4's revenue should have no problem to top $420mil, which should translate to at least $0.42/share earnings. Even if Q3's earning is at $0.30, that will still leave room for analysts to increase Q4's estimate. So, my feeling is that analysts are already having Q4's earning figure in mind. They are all waiting for Q3's result. If Q3's result is not a disaster, they will all come out to upgrade ASND around 10/10. What's the possibility that Q3 is a disaster? Not much! We know that Cascade part of the business has picked up significantly in Q3, say about 20% revenue increase sequencially to 120mil. Even though Ascend's internal sales is a bit weak, ASND should come out as a whole to at least break even comparing with last qtr. Plus reduced cost related to the murger, it can very well be possible that ASND makes the $0.33 estimate! So, after all Q3 won't be too bad and Q4 will be excellent! How much ASND's price can go up from here is everyone's guess!!! Good luck! MB

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