Another intellectual exercise of mine this morning is this... help if you can.
In 1929, months before the crash, there was a Babson Break. It was named after this dude named Babson who predicted a huge market decline within one day would signify the beginning of the end of the markets as they knew them in the 20's. He predicted this would be followed by a sharp, strong rebound followed by a steady and sometimes swift, decline. The weakness he cited was a huge sell-off one day in a very sharp manner. After the '29 Babson Break, the markets rallied and then fell and kept going. and then rose, and then fell and fell more... you get the drift.
There was also a recognizable Babson Break in 2000. I don't how many of you remember that one day in the markets when everything took a systematic, HUGE decline in one day only to bounce back... and to only fail later. On it's way to this particular Babson Break, the market's stumbled a number of times before finally giving it up.
I'm looking for any beginnings of sharp sell-offs, (I'm looking for Babson Breaks) and I'm looking for this kind of sign of weakness from a technical view. For example, any time's recently you've recalled where the Tick has been exceptionally negative and the Trin has been excessively high. Or in any othe way you interpret that info.
Fundamentally, there have been a few Babson Breaks so far. ENE, GX, IBM, TYC, etc. For this, I'm focusing on technicals.
I've noticed a couple days on the dow recently where this has happened, and I've noticed it also in particular stocks and in the nasdaq and s&p.
They're not 'true' Babson Breaks but I'm wondering if they can be considered tremors in the way that I'm trying to look at it.
OR could it be that the World Trade was the Babson Break?
Am I making any sense? |
