Saw on CNBC this am an interview with some guy with an int'l $ management co answering ? on stock market future. His prediction, and another's I saw from Prudential guru, was for Dow 7600 to 5800 range for the year, in other words, a scary volatile year, some way up, some way down. Also a rotation into small cap growth names. Int'l guy, in commenting on the one day massacre of Cascade comm and IBM's slaughter all last week, is that these popular big cap stocks are so hugely owned by institutions that when you want to sell, who do you sell them to? Cascade is certainly a cheering, and chilling, example for us AXC long term holders and believers to heed. enormous runup, was it 40 or 50 times??? over course of just a few years on exploding eps and sales, with an expanding pe to boot, and then institutions, growth and momentum ones were stuffed to the gills with it, so at the very first sign of trouble- the bottom falls out as they all try to sell to... who? Result, down 36% in a DAY. Other stocks get chopped in 1/2, even 70% I've seen I'm sure in Medaphis last year, in a day!
But in AXC we're dealing with only 10% institutional ownership, no huge pe yet (trading at about 15x published estimates, only 10x my guestimate of ~.80 with a Mitsu win thrown in for good measure), and very possible exploding eps. Hang on and buy more, when the ride occurs, it's going to be fun. One thing I've done increasingly as the wait gets longer than I'd hoped, is look at multi year charts of now or previous hi fliers, the ones returning 20-100x off of starting price. Most all had an incubating period where the story was easily known by many, but hadn't caught on yet as a concept stock or momentum play, then the growth came on all at once in some occasions, in others it was a near straight shot up for several years. Most however, have a falling out with the Big crowd and eventually fall from favor, with a resultant stock price. AXC is just waiting. Hold on, it's going to be, eventually, quite a ride! Witness Medicis, 96's big tout by Redchip Review, up at one point 535% year over year I saw by Smart Money Mag, because Redchip got people in early. Why, Medicis, now that it's gotten popular and institutionalized, went up $9(15%) in a DAY recently on the sole strenght of a news release. That made all the quibbly little 1/4 points up and down worth all the waiting during the undiscovered phase when Redchip was an early voice in the wilderness crying, "Hold ye Medicis for the long term!"
Hang on to AXC for the long term! It's not popular yet! It's not discovered that they could conceivably earn over $5/share, and maybe $10+, 2 to 5 years out.
One last word, when you read people's quotes from Redchip on AXC, "Iomega" gets mentioned a lot as an example of what could happen.
Hangin on by my fingernails in the 8's.... patience patience |
