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To: Ibexx who wrote (14679)3/19/1997 4:15:00 PM
From: Ibexx   of 186894
 
All,

Wednesday March 19 3:21 PM EST

FORECAST - Major money centers split on March FOMC

By Jeff Coelho

NEW YORK, March 19 (Reuter) - A Reuters sampling of economists in the world's primary trading centers found experts are divided about whether or not the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise official interest rates next week.

Six of 15 experts surveyed in New York, London and Tokyo said the Fed would tighten credit at Tuesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Four of these economists predicted an additional hike at
the Fed's subsequent meeting in May.
........

"A (rate) move is by no means assured, we are only forecasting most likely outcomes," said Ryding, who is
calling for no move in March but a rate hike in May. "The only outcome we can rule out this year is a cut in
interest rates," he said.

Full results of the survey follow.

NEW YORK

Participating Next Move Direction ff ff end ff yr
Firm of move Q2 97 end
Bear Stearns May 20 tighten 25 5.50 pct 5.50 pct
Goldman, Sachs March 25 tighten 25 5.75 pct 6.50 pct
J.P. Morgan March 25 tighten 25 5.75 pct 6.00 pct
Lehman Bros May 20 tighten 25 5.50 pct 5.50 pct
Salomon Bros March 25 tighten 25 5.75 pct 5.75 pct

TOKYO
Participating Next Move Direction ff ff end ff yr
Firm of move Q2 97 end
Nomura Research March 25 tighten 25 5.50 pct 5.75 pct
(50% probability)
Nikko Research no move -- -- 5.25 pct 5.25 pct
Yamaichi Research no move -- -- 5.25 pct 5.00 pct
in March
Daiwa Bank no move -- -- 5.25 pct 5.75 pct
in March
DKB Research no move -- -- 5.75 pct 5.75 pct
in March

LONDON
Participating Next Move Direction ff ff end ff yr
Firm of move Q2 97 end
Commerzbank March 25 tighten 25 5.50 pct 5.75 pct
James Capel Q4 ease 25 5.25 pct 5.00 pct
London Bond March 25 tighten 25 5.50 pct 5.75 pct
Brokering
Paribas May 20 tighten 25 5.50 pct 6.00 pct
SocGen Strauss March 25 tighten 25 5.75 pct 6.00 pct
Turnbull
REUTER
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