U.S. Voter Turnout Will Likely Fall Short of 2004, 2008
Fewer voters this year say they are thinking about election, will definitely vote
by Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- Key Gallup indicators of voter turnout, collected prior to superstorm Sandy, suggest voter turnout will fall short of what it was in 2004 and 2008. U.S. registered voters report giving less thought to the election, and are less likely to rate their chance of voting as a "10" on a 10-point scale, than in 2004 and 2008, two higher-turnout elections. However, the 2012 figures are higher than in 1996 and 2000, two lower-turnout elections.
The questions are two of the seven that factor into Gallup's likely voter model. The model assesses individual respondents' likelihood of voting by asking about current voting intentions and past voting behavior. "Election thought" and the 10-point "likelihood of voting scale" are the two questions that focus on current voting intentions and show the most variation from election to election. As the above chart indicates, in years like 1992, 2004, and 2008 when turnout was greater, more registered voters have tended to say they are giving at least some thought to the election, and to rate their likelihood of voting as high as possible. The percentages on these questions were lower in both 1996 and 2000, when proportionately fewer Americans voted.
Thus, the current data suggest turnout could fall in between the lower levels of 1996 and 2000 and the higher levels of 2004 and 2008.
The current results are based on Gallup Daily election tracking from Oct. 15-28. Voters' thought given to the election and voting intentions often increase closer to Election Day. However, superstorm Sandy has overtaken the election campaign as the dominant news event in recent days, which could in turn affect voters' attention to the campaign and voting intentions. Gallup has suspended its election tracking due to concerns about being able to adequately represent the U.S. electorate with so many in the East affected by the storm.
Additionally, the practical impact of Sandy and the storm's aftermath on voter participation this year is unclear, particularly in areas of the East and Mid-Atlantic where the effects could linger through Election Day on Nov. 6. Many voters in that area of the country who are engaged in the election and have every intention of voting may be unable to go to the polls on Election Day. Sandy could also have an effect on early voting in those states, though early voting is far less common in the East than in other parts of the country.
Implications
U.S. voters have not been quite as engaged in the 2012 election as in the two that preceded it, even before Sandy. However, their stated voting intentions and reported thought given to the election suggest turnout would likely not revert to the lower levels of 1996 and 2000. If turnout does come in lower this year -- that is, it looks more like 1996 and 2000 and less like 1992, 2004, and 2008 -- that may be another effect of Sandy in addition to flooding and widespread power outages. |
