>Could you pls. tell me what borokerage houses about predict about
>INTC performanc this quarter? Do you think the stock could reach 150
>by April?
I think that most of the earnings estimates are in the $2 to $2.07 range (Zack's had $2.00 mean, $2.11 as a high, $1.40 as a low).
My dartboard [and that's all it is] thinks they will beat these somewhat, perhaps $2.20. I think anything between $1.90 and $2.50 is possible, outside that range, I believe that there would have been a "warning", which has not happened.
The market is in a psychologically self-driven funk right now. It is worried about interest rates, high PE's, AMD, Cyrix, DEC and the health of the computer industry. None of the concerns is totally groundless, but none of them justifies what has happened either [in my opinion, anyway].
I believe that Intel will earn at least $8.00 this year, probably $9.00, possibly $10.00 and if absolutely everything goes perfect, could just barely hit $11.00 [big stretch on that one].
Intel has a five year average growth rate of about 45%. A company with this history, no clear problems [competition is normal], and $8.00 EPS should certainly command a stock price of $160.00. A case could be made for MUCH higher numbers, up to $275 if they were to hit the $11/share [not likely, in my opinion, but not completely impossible]. Even if they miss it this year, MANY analysts EXPECT $11.00/share for 98 or 99. So that's where I think we are headed.
As for April, the FOMC meeting and the AMD K-6 rollout are between us and April, as are the Intel earnings. Almost anything could happen, but my guess is $2.20 eps, stock rebounds to $140 to $160, so yes, I think $150 is POSSIBLE [if we see $2.30 or $2.40, then much higher numbers are possible]. But the bottom line is that I think it all depends on earnings. By the way, "earnings" may even include a response by Intel's stock to AMD's earnings, also due in April. I'm expecting AMD to report a $0.03 LOSS. |
