I am often amused by some of the statements I hear on CNBC by panelists who were hired I assume, due to a level of intelligence or accomplishment. My guess is that some of the personalities are chosen due to looks, speaking style, and personal relationships. So when I heard one not so well thought out comment from a regular, I began thinking, "This guy needs the Krell brain boost."
The statement that has been repeated several times is that if Apple reduces the time between phone product cycles, it will light a fire under the stock. Well, sir - ummm, not really.
If Apple increases the frequency of new i-Phone models unintentionally, that is…kicking & screaming as a result of competitive issues, then it is a defensive action.
If Apple's business moves are morphing from offense to defense, then this metamorphosis is not positive.
If the metamorphosis is not positive, then reducing the cycle time between product refreshes will not light a fire under the stock.
If regular panelists on CNBC do not understand logic, then they should run for Congress and quit the investing business.
Granularity on the above:
Given a 2 year requirement to qualify for a subsidy from a carrier for a new phone, more frequent refreshes mean smaller sales per new model. That translates into a reduction in economies of scale and makes each introduction less of an "event". Given that we are seeing convergence in feature sets by products of all the major brands, the increased frequency of improved models suggests a trend towards commoditization.
|
