What McCain Needs To Do: To no one's surprise, his...
American Scene blog
By Ross Douthat
What McCain Needs To Do: To no one's surprise, his greatest obstacle is the skepticism of GOP primary voters. In his latest Cook Political Report poll, Charlie Cook asked:
Some people say that McCain would be a good candidate for president because he has demonstrated a great deal of personal integrity... he has a strong military background and he has independent political views; while other people say McCain would not be a good candidate for president because at age 72 (his age in the fall of 2008) he is too old to run for president, he is too stubborn in his issue positions and he does not always represent Republican views on the issues . . . Which of those two statements comes closer to your point of view on John McCain running for president in 2008?
On the con side, I would have thrown in, "and he has an unseemly craving for elite media adulation," but oh well. Anyway, here are the results:
Among all adults, 48 percent were pro-McCain and 35 were anti-McCain. Among registered voters, 49 percent were pro McCain and 34 percent were anti-McCain. But among Republicans, just 41 percent agreed more with the pro-McCain statements, while 45 percent favored the anti-McCain arguments. Among Democrats, it was 47 percent pro-McCain, 32 percent anti-McCain. Among independents, a whopping 55 percent agreed with the pro-McCain option and 29 percent agreed with the anti-McCain option.
Among the Republicans and independents who say they usually vote in GOP primaries, it was better for McCain -- 48 percent agreed with the pro-McCain position, and 39 percent agreed with the anti-McCain position, though this may well overestimate the true participation rate of independents in party primaries and caucuses. Among hardcore Republican primary voters, he ran about even -- 45 percent pro-McCain, 43 percent anti-McCain. In short, McCain has a real problem among Republican voters who seem . . . to be "ambivalent about whether he is a good Republican."
On the other hand, that 45 percent isn't such a bad base to build from, particularly if your opposition is fragmented and unappealing. (I don't think I'm buying what George Allen is selling . . .) And while McCain definitely has some work to do (cough, abortion, cough) if he wants to move from being the front-runner to being a lock, I'd rather be in his shoes than in Hillary's. As Cook puts it, her weaknesses "are the precise opposite of McCain's. She shows great strength inside the party, but receives a tepid-to-hostile reaction among independents and Republicans."
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