MGI Pharma MOGN New patents, anti cancer Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : MGI Pharma MOGN New patents, anti cancer

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To: Ward Knutson who wrote (1483)	3/10/2004 12:42:27 PM
From: Biomaven	of 1826

So February run-rate is already $86m/yr. If we assume continued straight-line growth of 15k doses each month (i.e, linear growth matching the last three months), that would imply 2004 sales of 216m. But of course it's very hard to extrapolate sensibly at this early stage. It's possible we could still see some exponential growth for a few months (that's what you get if a doctor tries it a couple of times one month and then decides to use it widely across the entire patient population the next month). That would make predictions harder, because you don't know when the exponential growth starts to tail-off, as it must do at some point. But anyhow it looks like there is overwhelmingly more chance of an upward sales surprise here than a downward one. The new NCNN guidelines could be very influential - we could easily see a short-term pop if the company puts out a PR. Anyone care to make sales prediction for 2004? If people PM me their predictions I'll list the responses. (That way the predictions that get posted earlier don't influence the later ones). Peter

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