Addi:
I really am not sure but I have noticed that we rarely get
total agreement with all 5 of those indicators. Also prices
falling is the natural state for this industry <g>.
Looking at some of the past data for the semi-custom segment:
- Inventories have been building or being maintained very
strongly in each of the past 4 months when the build/maintain
numbers have been 70%, 86%, 80%, 90% and the reduction numbers have
been 20%, 10%, 5%, 0%. Prior to these 4 months there was a weak
upwardly positive trend - the average B/M was 56 and the average
reduction% was 28% in the first five months of the year.)I think it is fair to say that we have a very strong building/maintenace of semi-custom chip inventory going on.
- Prices have always been going down this year <g>. Except for
what looks like fluke data in July, the highest% indicating a rise
in prices was 17% and most of the time the %ge indicating an increase
is small - less than 10% or so on average. There is one negative
here in that there definitely is a pick up in the %ge indicating
a drop in prices - in the first q only around 9% on average
indicated a drop in prices, in the 2nd q around 50% indicated
a drop in prices, in the 3rd q around 23% indicated a drop in
prices. So maybe this is a good thing cp. to q2!
- Supply conditions - those postulating improvements were about
10% in q1, 18% in q2 and only 5% in q3. Those postulating worsening
supply conditions were 32% in q1, 75% in q2, and 65% in q3.
Again the clear trend is that conditions are worsening on the supply
side which is a good thing if one is invested in these stocks
There is also a good correlation between what Corrigan has said and
the overall industry comments:
quarter what corrigan said what the overall industry said
1 things picking up jan - favorable outlook in q1
feb - cond. improving but concerns linger
mar - steady as she goes
2 things looking good apr - steady but uncertain
but dropping off may - watch the memory market <g>
as quarter ended jun - pessimism prevails
3 earnings warning - jul - conditions remain sluggish
broad based weakness aug - exp. head further south
in July and August sep - improvements ahead
Since Sep is showing improvements ahead, I will go on record and say LSI will show an upside surprise in revenues for Q4 <ggg>
(I pay no attention to the earnings at this stage.)
I really don't follow XLNX closely so I'll have to punt here!
Shane |
