Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (14961)	7/26/1997 7:52:00 PM
From: Don Earl	of 42771

Hi Paul, I didn't mean to treat your post flippantly. It was a good post. It's just that playing 300 to 1 odds with more than pocket change doesn't strike me as being very bright. I've seen some threads on SI where the short play is so big longs tend to get laughed off the thread. It might ease your mind if you were to take some test samples of a few companies you feel are doing well and look at the ahort positions as a percentage of outstanding shares. The situation you mentioned in May is my absolute fovorite for day Trading. Unfortunatly , I was already long and was suffering from shock and didn't do what I should have. There is always a lot of volitility after sharp drops on high volume and I always make money when I play them. Day trading at it's finest. Great fun. As far as my analysis goes, I'll try to explain but a lot of it comes from a feel for what happens when the price stops droppping. My system is probably 10% moving averages, 25% price/volume bar charts, 25% bid/ask action during the day and 40% news. There are patterns that form in price/volume bar charts that I've found to be very reliable. I'm probably putting 60% of my opinion on that chart alone right now. It's absolutely beautiful! The lower resistance has been moving up every day this week while it has broken through upper resistance each day also, pretty much on increasing volume (Thursday had me a little worried). All in a very narrow trading range. This is very, very good. It builds a platform to break through previous resistance levels. Look at the spikes on price and volume for the quarter. Those are your resistance levels. Each time the price has dropped from the high point it has failed to form a bottom and didn't have the strength to go past the last high on its next run up. It has also repeatedly broken through lower resistance levels. The last drop failed to break through lower resistance of 6.28 and then formed the current bottom pattern. The last two highs were 7 1/2 and about 8 1/8. The last high volume spike was around 6 million. What we are looking for now is confirmation. It has to go past 7 1/2 on volume of around 6 million. My gusee is this will happen in 1-2 days. Based on the chart I wouldn't be surprised if it blew through two levels of resistance into the low 8s. All in my opinion, subject to change without notice. Regards, Don

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