> Also, developers are likely to develop for the most widely used products first -- remember the dark days when Mac OS was an afterthought for the likes of Adobe, Autodesk, et al.
That was my point. Apple's share was maybe 2%. Of course developers were abandoning the platform at that point.
Its not that I don't think market share is important to some extent, the people who are constantly pointing out that Android is winning the market share battle are remembering a completely different war.
Its like WWI vs WWII. The French Maginot Line was useless in WWII. The previous paradigm did not apply. Technology changed everything.
If a computer costs $10,000 its hard to maintain a 40% profit margin, its quite a bit easier if its a $1000 device. Remember that's $10,000 in 1995 bucks. A few hundred bucks now amortized over 2 - 4 years is not a lot.
Its quite different with phones now than it was with computers then.
Plus:
1 - there are already what 600,000+ apps for iOS? The main apps are there. Advance CAD programs are not that useful on phones or even pads. If Apple has 20% of a billion that's a potential audience of 200 million. If what people predict comes true in 10 years everyone will have a smart phone.
2 - both markets are saturated - one market is still profitable, that's what counts. A million apps given away free don't make anyone any money.
Now if Apple got down to 10% I would definitely watch that scenario unfold with dread... but as long as it keeps up around 20% there is nothing to worry about. If Android captures more of the growing market but captures the low end people it means not much as long at the market grows.
As Herb pointed out they can maintain profit margin until the market stops expanding, and even after that. Look at the Mac. Still expanding share little by little with big margins. |
