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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 239.33

-0.5%

3:10 PM EST

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To: Chi Melville who wrote (13)	5/15/1996 7:03:00 AM
From: Jerry Denkera	of 53903

Chi where should we begin.First of all I follow the spot market which responds to supply and changes on a daily basis and can be used to see trend in pricing but has no bearing on what could happen in 97 but from quarter to quarter will effect overall selling price across the board. {Collapse seen unlikely}Well most people believe a collapse to some extent has already taken place.Are 4Megs going to .60 apiece of course not how do we measure collapse?In DEC MU probably had an average selling price of 14-15 for 4Meg in the Feb report it went to 10.50 and this quarter will probably show a considerable drop again. What is difficult to quantify is how much new capacity will come on board and how that will effect the supply. Look Handy and dataquest have a hell of lot more info at their disposal but predictions by dataquest have been known to change dramatically based upon what is happening in the market at any given time.One day they predict 26% growth in PCs and the next it is changed to 8%.So use their input as additional info but their prediction record is a little spotty. They certainly have good current market info but so does everyone on this thread and we don't charge for the service. Regards Jerry

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