This is starting to feel like capitulation. Tech companies expecting recovery in years and not months, bond talk everywhere, concerns over housing, global recession, Nikkei at 17 year lows (and big Japanese conglomerates laying off in Japan), HP at 1996 levels, Chambers saying that half the Nas100 will be gone....
Isn't it when everyone "accepts" that stocks are not going to do very well that there's a bottom?
FWIW, from TSC's Meisler:
Which brings me back to Tuesday's rally. Sentiment continues to lean just a little too far to the bearish side these days. I described my reasoning in my Friday and Monday columns, but let me expand on the passing comment I made on the 10-day Arms Index, or TRIN. I have read several times that the last time we had back-to-back TRIN readings of more than 2 was Oct. 16 and 19, 1987. That's all well and good, and yes, the exact low was on Oct. 20 that year, but we had a retest of those lows nearly six weeks later on Dec. 4.
Even though the Dec. 4 low that year led to what appears to be a very good rally, the market essentially went nowhere for almost four years after the Crash of '87, if you take into account the highs of August '87. No, it didn't go back down to that 1620 low on the Dow, but we did not convincingly get through the August 1987 high of 2720 until the early part of 1991. (We managed to get back there in 1989 but slipped back under that level several more times for the next two years.)
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