MMV :
Thanks for your comments. As for the Brinker thread, I agree that there is just too much of hero-worshipping going on there, and there is little point in challenging his "cheerleaders". I am not saying that the average investor didn't gain anything by listening to Brinker's advice, but I think it is a tad silly to elevate him to the status of a "seer". There is just too much idolizing and lionizing of the man, and whatever he says is lapped up without question. I am not surprised if some of us feel stifled in such an environment.
I agree with your point about Brinker's comments on KO. The stock is definitely over-valued but as I see it, KO will definitely not reach fair valuation (i.e. suffer a decline of 50%) unless the market as a whole tanks significantly, say by 30% or so. If KO's overvaluation is based on the "Greater Fool" theory, the same is true about the whole market too, which, as you rightly commented, is liquidity-driven, not fundamental-driven.
But then, Brinker's timing model supposedly allows us to drink at the water-hole as long as possible and get out just before the crocodiles strike! We'll see what happens. History is littered with graves of market-timers (and their followers) who walked over the edge of the cliff!
Dipy. |
