Tim and Doug, interesting posts today,
fanning , key word is fanning , the
flames of speculation.
But are they? Or are we just following an underlying
powerful stream of Institutional NN buying?
I start to suspect more and more that the latter is what is going on.
We don't have, unlike previous NN waves of enthusiastic buying,
the 2 - 3 intradaypoint swings that characterize frenetic spastic
day traders.
What i have observed instead is a giant Amazon forest tree-feller
cutting a wide swath through the Amazon forest of small, NN
stockholders. All those stockholders that got left out at 18 -26
on this big, sudden dip to 14.
The machine comes up, puts a small, incremental price, just a little
higher from what they paid, just enough for them to break even and
be enticed to sell and thank goodness they sell, " I am so glad to have
gotten out of this one live and well ".
Systematically and methodically, giant reaper comes on everyday for past
week and reaps millions, millions of tree stock.
How many shares does FIDO need? Lots.
So I think that is what is happening.
Institutions unlike the little guy are closer to the company and get a better
drift of what is going on.So they may have a clearer picture of what
TM and Flynn are up to.
Did Institutions have a say in the sale of NN?
Possible.
They are probably the ones that dumped big time NN,
all the way from US50+ to 14. I am sure that they fully sympathized
with NN and TM's travails over time to the point that they
put up IMHO with an unbelievable amount of bad turns, seven as
I remember in the last 3 years. Most everybody else would have sent
NN to the garbage can by now. And yet they all gave NN chances, over
and over.
But I think that since Nov. 1st (( it became clear to the Institutions
that consolidation is the only solution in the Telecom Industry.
And I think they told TM that they wouldn't support him any more.
That if he went it alone they would leave his shares down to $ 8-10/sh
were TM's 22% share would become puny.
And so I think that is what persuaded TM ( as well as the Board who
where similarly counseled by Institutions.
And so I even doubt that a correction will occur. Maybe at ~27 -28 because
there is a lot of resistance there but even those may be taken out.
It is all together possible that NN will go to 28 - 32 ( an old comfortable trading range )
and stay there for the 1? 2? 3? months of DD, if there is any.
Just some thoughts.
I hope that after this nice fiction book you've just read and with the bedtime cap you
are both nodding off and ready to fall asleep.
Goodnight,
see you tomorrow,
TA
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To: Samuel Wayne Turner who wrote (15027)
From: Tim Luke
Tuesday, Nov 23 1999 8:58PM ET
Respond to Post # 15031 of 15031
it really doesn't matter at this point...we know they will be bought so load ..sit back...and let it come to you
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To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (15023)
From: JS
Tuesday, Nov 23 1999 8:54PM ET
Respond to Post # 15030 of 15031
TA, thanks for the input. NN is my largest position of any stock by far, at the moment. That's how much I believe in it. I was just counting on a
small correction (and I believe it will come). I still expect some analyst to come out strongly against NN. Remarkably, very few have. There is
amazingly little negative press about this stock! What's even more remarkable is that even when probable suitors publicly state that they are not
interested (Ericsson, yesterday), it does not affect the price at all!! I agree that we are all going to be very surprised when the final deal is done.
Nonetheless,I was fortunate enough to add some at $15. and $16. a few weeks ago to average down because I also have some at $26.
This is going to be very interesting (with or without hype)!
Regards,
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